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The September 2024 “forecasts of forecasts” of the commercial drone sector by Unmanned Airspace shows another fall in commercial drone market growth estimates, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for the global drone sector over the next few years now down to 14.4%, down from 17.9% recorded in September 2023 and 24% in the January 2023 forecast of forecasts.
While this is still a very robust figure for annual growth rates, the wide variations in market values (from USD4.2 billion to over USD220 billion) and CAGR forecasts for the next few years (a low of 2.24% and a high of 35%) show that this remains a highly complex market with major disagreements between forecasters on the scale and growth rates of the industry.
The very high and very low outliers also provides a measure of distortion to the overall figures. But both the low and high outliers (and all the numbers in between) have reduced considerably over the last 12 months and there is a clear trend of reduction in optimism among most forecasters.
High-level market reports for BVLOS drone operations show a compound annual growth rate of 26.9% over the next five years. The starting base, however, is extremely small. Drone Industry Insights reports the current (non-China) BVLOS/VLOS flight hours to be around 1.9 million in 2023, of which BVLOS flights accounted for under 100,000 hours.
Drone industry forecasts in 2023/2024
| Forecaster | Market value | Years | Market | Growth rate |
| FAA | 2023-2028 | Small sUAS fleet | CAGR 2.4% | |
| Statistica | USD4.3 billion in 2024 | 2024-2029 | Global drone industry | CAGR 2.24% |
| Drone Industry Insights | USD54.6 billion | 2024 | Global recreational and commercial UAS | CAGR 7.1% (from 2023) |
| Skyquest | USD22.4 in 2022 rising to USD166.7 billion in 2031 | 2024-2031 | Global commercial UAS market | CAGR 35% |
| Spherical Insights | USD260 billion by 2030 | 2021-2030 | Global drone market | CAGR 27% |
| Market and Markets | USD30.2 billion in 2024 rising to USD48.5 billion | 2024-2029 | Global drone market | CAGR 9.9% |
| Mordor Intelligence | USD35.28 billion in 2024 and USD67.64 billion by 2029, | 2024-2029 | Global drone market | CAGR 13.9% |
| Research and Markets | Consumer | 2022-2029 | Consumer drone market | CAGR 17.26% |
Statistica reports that in 2024, the global drone market will be worth USD4.3 billion. “It is projected to grow annually by 2.24% (CAGR 2024-2029),” says the market analyst. “When comparing global figures, in China generates the highest revenue with USD1,526 million in 2024. This translates to per person revenues of USD0.55 in 2024. “By 2029, the volume in the drone market is expected to reach 9.5 million pieces. There will be a volume growth of 3.2% in 2025.”